Triangula Capital

The inflation problem is far from being solved.

Stocks rose slightly last week despite the Federal Reserve sending a message that it is “nowhere near” done with its fight against inflation. www.ft.com/content/010544f6-95ba-4d42-8c99-4556b1590816 The reason for the Fed’s hawkish message is that although commodity prices have fallen, wage inflation continues to run hot. www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker The supply of workers has been reduced as a result

Stocks rose strongly in July driven by weak sentiment, low expectations for company earnings which key companies exceeded, and lower interest rates. www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/stock-market-news-updates-open-to-close-future.html The problem we have with this rally is that inflation, the underlying cause of the market’s difficulties this year, has not gone away. If anything, inflation pressures have broadened in recent months.

Stocks rose last week despite weak economic data which indicate the global economy may already be in a recession. “Excluding pandemic lockdown months, output is falling at a rate not seen since 2009,” says S&P. www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/52db97a5557c433d855b74a46c5ecff6 The surprising resilience of the market may be due to the bad data being expected. Investors are currently the

Some models indicate that the stock market is 40% overvalued.

Soft landing – S&P 500 @ 4200.
Recession – S&P 500 @ 2900?

The share of cash in the portfolio was increased to 60%.

Another bear market rally started last week.