Weekly Update 26 September 2022
We do not believe this bear market is over and target 3000 for the S&P 500.
We do not believe this bear market is over and target 3000 for the S&P 500.
Because inflation has proved persistent, there is a chance interest rates will have to move to the 5-6% range.
Stocks rose last week due to oversold conditions being reversed and Ukraine making progress in its war against Russia.
Stocks should fall 30% from here to reach fair value, according to a GMO model.
We continue to hold a bearish view on stocks and keep the majority of the portfolio in cash.