Weekly Update 30 January 2023
A strong start to the year +14%.
Our base scenario is that the market continues to rally over the next 1-2 months.
Despite current economic resilience, investors remain pessimistic about next year. Could this be wrong?
In 2022, part of the bubble in Growth stocks deflated as Value stocks beat Growth stocks by 20 percentage points.
If the economy holds up, we see 50%+ upside for many of the positions in our portfolio.
European equities are under-owned at the moment; cyclical European companies should outperform.
The S&P 500 index may fall to the low 3000s next year, possibly as early as Q1.