Weekly Updates

The CAPE ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio), also known as the Shiller P/E, is a valuation measure for equity markets. It is calculated as:

Over the past 35 years, U.S. equities have outperformed their international peers by an impressive 4.7% per year.

The $SPX500 (SPX500 Index (Non Expiry)) has not only recovered its April losses but continued to rally as tariffs have been, at least temporarily, rolled back. Still, I remain cautious on U.S. equities for several reasons:

Markets are rallying today in response to the U.S.–China tariff truce.

The portfolio reached a new all-time high in U.S. dollar terms last week.

Market gloom is thick in the air — with some justification.

Our portfolio has significantly outperformed the MSCI World index this year, as rising political uncertainty and a slowing US economy have weighed on the S&P 500.

Today the main headline in newspapers is that the markets are ‘crashing’, ‘tumbling’ and ‘in free fall’.

The first quarter is ending on a weak note for stocks.

Risk should be viewed in two ways: as the possibility of loss, but also as the possibility of missing out on gains.