Many investors were cautious at the beginning of the year, but the market ($SWDA.L) has returned +19% for the year to date, our portfolio +20%. There are a couple of reasons for this year’s rally. First, economic growth in 2023 is turning out to be better than feared. Asset manager KKR expects the US economy […]
Weekly Update 31 July 2023 Read More »
UK banks have underperformed continental European banks this year.
Weekly Update 17 July 2023 Read More »
Inflation is finally starting to come down. Owing to elevated wage growth (6%), inflation is running at a high rate (5%). www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker www.clevelandfed.org/en/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting However, trend inflation has declined to 3-4% both in the US and in the euro area. www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/underlying-inflation-gauge twitter.com/VMRConstancio/status/1677317770696949763 Leading indicators of inflation, such as ISM Prices, Producer Prices, NFIB Price Plans and
Weekly Update 10 July 2023 Read More »
The first half of the year closed with a +13% return. It was a good start to the year in absolute terms, but in relative terms the strategy underperformed the MSCI World index by 2 percentage points. Sometimes underperformance is due to bad stock selections. This year, it has been down more to relative sector
Weekly Update 3 July 2023 Read More »
Our strategy has performed poorly since the end of January, with a -7% return. Banks, our main focus, have underperformed this year. A few banks failed in the US in March and April, leading to higher costs for all US banks. The US bank index $KBE is down 20% for the year. European banks have
Weekly Update 26 June 2023 Read More »
Growth stocks extended their lead over Value stocks last week. $VUG has beaten $VTV by 30 percentage points this year (+32% vs +2%). Given the scale of its recent outperformance, the Nasdaq looks a little overextended here. macro-ops.com/whales-are-dumping-megacaps-dirty-dozen/ Our strategy has underperformed the MSCI World index ($SWDA.L) this year by 1 percentage point. This is
Weekly Update 19 June 2023 Read More »
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Pietari Laurila is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer investment advisory, fund management or wealth management services.
Triangula Capital is a brand name, not an incorporated entity.
This page is provided for information purposes only. It is not a recommendation to copy the Triangula Capital strategy or to buy, sell or hold any security.
2009-2020 performance figures are from Pietari’s personal Interactive Brokers account. They are time-weighted returns calculated in accordance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS).
From 2021, performance is calculated by eToro.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
It is often said that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
That is true. But there is also some evidence indicating that portfolios that performed better in the past, do perform better in the future.
“[…] top-decile prior-alpha funds produce annual future alphas of about 150 bps, net of fees” Source
Risk warning: That is only one study. In general, past performance is not indicative of future results.
Pietari invests the majority of his net worth in the strategy. This ensures that his interests are aligned with investors who copy the strategy.
“Funds with high-incentive contracts deliver higher risk-adjusted return, and the superior performance remains persistent. The top incentive quintile of funds outperforms the bottom quintile by 2.70% per year” Source
Risk warning: Pietari holds accounts with multiple brokers and may therefore have a conflict of interest when deciding which accounts he should trade in first.
The strategy has fewer constraints on its investments than traditional mutual funds.
The strategy portfolio can be invested in stocks, bonds or cash and these allocations can vary over time.
Compared to traditional mutual funds, the strategy also:
Each of these points has been shown to be an important predictor of portfolio performance.
“We […] find that portfolio concentration is directly related to risk-adjusted returns for institutional investors worldwide” Source
“A one-standard-deviation increase in turnover is associated with a 0.65% per year increase in performance for the typical fund” Source
“We find that truly active funds significantly outperform closet indexers. Further, we find that the truly active funds are able to outperform their benchmarks on average by 1.04% per year” Source
Risk warning: Concentrated portfolios with few positions can suffer large losses if bad news arrives about any of the companies in the portfolio.
The strategy invests in geographies and sectors where values have collapsed due to macroeconomic problems.
Within these geographies and sectors, the strategy overweights stocks that trade at low valuations on measures such as price-to-earnings or price-to-net asset value.
Every stock in the strategy portfolio must also be a good company, with no obvious red flags or long-term threats to its business model.
The aim of the strategy is to maximize returns, even if this means taking more risks than usual.
Risk warning: The strategy portfolio tends to be concentrated in risky stocks, which means that its losses in any market downturn will likely exceed those of the market index.
