For the first time since 2021, there is the possibility of some real money being made over the next 12 months.

The regional banking crisis in the US spread to new companies

Investors still view European banks with skepticism and indifference.

If bank earnings continue to come in strong, we believe bank shares could bounce.

A confusing market environment with both bullish and bearish arguments.

There are many interesting seasonal patterns in the markets.

Our strategy returned +14% in Q1, beating the MSCI World index by 6 percentage points.

It looks like the first quarter of 2023 will end with a gain for stocks.

2023 has been a tough year for Value stocks.

All our US and European bank positions were sold on Friday, moving the majority of the portfolio into cash.

We expect the market to fall in 2023, but see scope for near-term strength over the next 1-2 months.

We do not get a clear signal about near-term market action and choose to run a relatively cautious portfolio.

We took profits on the majority of our risky cyclical stock positions last week after turning more cautious on the near-term outlook for the market.

Individual investors have turned optimistic for the first time since early 2022.

Several Wall Street strategists are warning that the stock market rally has gone far enough and stocks will soon reverse course.

A strong start to the year +14%.

Our base scenario is that the market continues to rally over the next 1-2 months.

A year rarely starts as well as 2023 has done.

2022 was a strong year for our strategy.

Despite current economic resilience, investors remain pessimistic about next year. Could this be wrong?

In 2022, part of the bubble in Growth stocks deflated as Value stocks beat Growth stocks by 20 percentage points.

If the economy holds up, we see 50%+ upside for many of the positions in our portfolio.

European equities are under-owned at the moment; cyclical European companies should outperform.

The S&P 500 index may fall to the low 3000s next year, possibly as early as Q1.

European banks are still cheap.

The portfolio is now 75% in cash.

We see a lost decade ahead for stocks.

It is hard to see where the next bad news that will drive stocks lower will come from.

Most traders today don’t have good perspective about how long it can take to find an equity bottom in a downturn.

In the current circumstances, cash looks like a pretty good investment.

Our intuition is that there is a 75% chance that the markets rally into the year end because of current oversold conditions.

We do not believe this bear market is over and target 3000 for the S&P 500.

Because inflation has proved persistent, there is a chance interest rates will have to move to the 5-6% range.

Stocks rose last week due to oversold conditions being reversed and Ukraine making progress in its war against Russia.

Stocks should fall 30% from here to reach fair value, according to a GMO model.

We continue to hold a bearish view on stocks and keep the majority of the portfolio in cash.

Stocks fell 1% last week as the rally that had started two months ago showed signs of exhaustion.

The inflation problem is far from being solved.

Stocks rose slightly last week despite the Federal Reserve sending a message that it is “nowhere near” done with its fight against inflation. www.ft.com/content/010544f6-95ba-4d42-8c99-4556b1590816 The

Stocks rose strongly in July driven by weak sentiment, low expectations for company earnings which key companies exceeded, and lower interest rates. www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/stock-market-news-updates-open-to-close-future.html The problem

Stocks rose last week despite weak economic data which indicate the global economy may already be in a recession. “Excluding pandemic lockdown months, output is

Some models indicate that the stock market is 40% overvalued.

Soft landing – S&P 500 @ 4200.
Recession – S&P 500 @ 2900?

The share of cash in the portfolio was increased to 60%.

Another bear market rally started last week.

We have turned very bearish on the economy and, hence, the market.

We decided to take the risk level of the portfolio down massively last week.

We hold a risk-on portfolio at the moment because the media narrative appears negative.

After the bullish action last week, stocks are no longer oversold, but we would not fade this rally too early.

Stocks fell for a seventh week in a row, briefly entering a bear market on Friday.

Stocks fell for a sixth week in a row as investors continued to worry about a recession in the US, inflation, China and Ukraine.

Stocks fell last week as higher interest rates weighed on valuations.

Stocks had a tough April. The S&P 500 index dropped 8.8%.

Stocks fell last week as concerns grew about the effect the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policy would have on the markets.

Last week we completed repositioning the portfolio into stagflation beneficiaries.

Stocks fell last week as the Federal Reserve’s tightening plans weighed on company valuations.

Q1 2022 was the worst quarter for stocks in two years.

Stocks rose modestly last week, while interest rates surged.

Stocks rallied last week as progress was reported in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

Stocks fell last week as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to weigh on risk appetite.

European stocks fell 7% last week as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued to roil global, and especially European, markets.

Russia attacked Ukraine last week. The markets fell in shock on Thursday before recovering on Friday. On the weekend, additional sanctions against Russia were announced,

Stocks fell last week for the second time in a row as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated.