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Weekly Updates

Weekly Update 31 July 2023

Many investors were cautious at the beginning of the year, but the market ($SWDA.L) has returned +19% for the year to date, our portfolio +20%.

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Weekly Updates

Weekly Update 10 July 2023

Inflation is finally starting to come down. Owing to elevated wage growth (6%), inflation is running at a high rate (5%). www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker www.clevelandfed.org/en/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting However, trend

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Weekly Updates

Weekly Update 3 July 2023

The first half of the year closed with a +13% return. It was a good start to the year in absolute terms, but in relative

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Weekly Updates

Weekly Update 26 June 2023

Our strategy has performed poorly since the end of January, with a -7% return. Banks, our main focus, have underperformed this year. A few banks

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Weekly Updates

Weekly Update 19 June 2023

Growth stocks extended their lead over Value stocks last week. $VUG has beaten $VTV by 30 percentage points this year (+32% vs +2%). Given the

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Weekly Updates

Weekly Update 20 February 2023

We took profits on the majority of our risky cyclical stock positions last week after turning more cautious on the near-term outlook for the market.

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Weekly Updates

Weekly Update 6 February 2023

Several Wall Street strategists are warning that the stock market rally has gone far enough and stocks will soon reverse course.

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Weekly Updates

Weekly Update 3 October 2022

Our intuition is that there is a 75% chance that the markets rally into the year end because of current oversold conditions.

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Weekly Updates

Weekly Update 8 August 2022

Stocks rose slightly last week despite the Federal Reserve sending a message that it is “nowhere near” done with its fight against inflation. www.ft.com/content/010544f6-95ba-4d42-8c99-4556b1590816 The

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Weekly Updates

Weekly Update 1 August 2022

Stocks rose strongly in July driven by weak sentiment, low expectations for company earnings which key companies exceeded, and lower interest rates. www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/stock-market-news-updates-open-to-close-future.html The problem

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Weekly Updates

Weekly Update 25 July 2022

Stocks rose last week despite weak economic data which indicate the global economy may already be in a recession. “Excluding pandemic lockdown months, output is

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Weekly Updates

Weekly Update 16 May 2022

Stocks fell for a sixth week in a row as investors continued to worry about a recession in the US, inflation, China and Ukraine.

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Weekly Updates

Weekly Update 25 April 2022

Stocks fell last week as concerns grew about the effect the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policy would have on the markets.

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Disclosures

eToro is a multi-asset platform which offers both investing in stocks and cryptoassets, as well as trading CFD assets.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

eToro (Europe) Ltd., a Financial Services Company authorised and regulated by the Cyprus Securities Exchange Commission (CySEC) under the license # 109/10.

eToro (UK) Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) under the license FRN 583263.

Your capital is at risk. Other fees may apply. For more information, visit etoro.com/trading/fees.

Pietari Laurila is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer investment advisory, fund management or wealth management services.

Triangula Capital is a brand name, not an incorporated entity.

This page is provided for information purposes only. It is not a recommendation to copy the Triangula Capital strategy or to invest in any fund or security.

2009-2020 performance figures are from Pietari’s personal Interactive Brokers account. They are time-weighted returns calculated in accordance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS).

From 2021, performance is calculated by eToro.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Track Record

It is often said that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

That is true. But there is also some evidence indicating that portfolios that performed better in the past, do perform better in the future.

“[…] top-decile prior-alpha funds produce annual future alphas of about 150 bps, net of fees” Source

Risk warning: That is only one study. In general, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aligned Incentives

Pietari invests the majority of his net worth in the strategy. This ensures that his interests are aligned with investors who copy the strategy.

“Funds with high-incentive contracts deliver higher risk-adjusted return, and the superior performance remains persistent. The top incentive quintile of funds outperforms the bottom quintile by 2.70% per year” Source

Risk warning: Pietari holds accounts with multiple brokers and may therefore have a conflict of interest when deciding which accounts he should trade in first.

Unconstrained Investments

The strategy has fewer constraints on its investments than traditional mutual funds.

The strategy portfolio can be invested in stocks, bonds or cash and these allocations can vary over time.

Compared to traditional mutual funds, the strategy also:

  • holds fewer securities
  • trades more
  • avoids following the index

Each of these points has been shown to be an important predictor of portfolio performance.

“We […] find that portfolio concentration is directly related to risk-adjusted returns for institutional investors worldwide” Source

“A one-standard-deviation increase in turnover is associated with a 0.65% per year increase in performance for the typical fund” Source

“We find that truly active funds significantly outperform closet indexers. Further, we find that the truly active funds are able to outperform their benchmarks on average by 1.04% per year” Source

Risk warning: Concentrated portfolios with few positions can suffer large losses if bad news arrives about any of the companies in the portfolio.

Cheap Stocks in Cheap Sectors

The strategy invests in geographies and sectors where values have collapsed due to macroeconomic problems.

Within these geographies and sectors, the strategy overweights stocks that trade at low valuations on measures such as price-to-earnings or price-to-net asset value.

Every stock in the strategy portfolio must also be a good company, with no obvious red flags or long-term threats to its business model.

The aim of the strategy is to maximize returns, even if this means taking more risks than usual.

Risk warning: The strategy portfolio tends to be concentrated in risky stocks, which means that its losses in any market downturn will likely exceed those of the market index.