[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":124},["ShallowReactive",2],{"shared-newsletter-band":3,"post-\u002Fblog\u002F2026-09-14-5-is-fair-but-not-yet-a-screaming-buy":12,"disclosures-modal":95},{"newsletterSecondary":4},{"heading":5,"body":6,"nameLabel":7,"emailLabel":8,"consent":9,"submitLabel":10,"backdrop":11},"Follow Pietari's investment thinking","Receive Pietari’s latest market commentary and investment insights by email.","Name","Email","I agree to receive the Triangula Capital newsletter by email. I can unsubscribe at any time.","SUBSCRIBE","\u002Fimages\u002Fnewsletter-backdrop.webp",{"id":13,"title":14,"author":15,"body":16,"date":84,"description":85,"draft":86,"extension":87,"hero":81,"hidden":86,"image":81,"meta":88,"navigation":89,"noindex":86,"ogImage":81,"path":90,"seo":91,"seoTitle":14,"stem":92,"tags":93,"__hash__":94},"blog\u002Fblog\u002F2026-09-14-5-is-fair-but-not-yet-a-screaming-buy.md","5% is fair but not yet a screaming buy","Pietari Laurila",{"type":17,"value":18,"toc":80},"minimark",[19,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68,71,74,77],[20,21,22],"p",{},"The US 10-year Treasury yield has reached 5%. Is that high, or could yields go higher still?",[20,24,25],{},"We can break a government bond yield into three building blocks:",[20,27,28],{},"inflation + real interest rate + term premium",[20,30,31],{},"First, bond investors need to be compensated for inflation. The Federal Reserve officially targets 2% inflation, but underlying inflation has recently been running closer to 3%. Going forward, an inflation assumption of 2.5–3% appears reasonable.",[20,33,34],{},"The second component is the real short-term interest rate — ‘real’ meaning the interest rate above inflation.",[20,36,37],{},"The real rate is determined by the balance between saving and investment in the economy. It depends on many factors, including economic growth, demographics, private investment demand, global savings and capital flows, and preferences for saving.",[20,39,40],{},"The New York Fed estimates that the neutral real rate should currently be in the 1–1.5% range. Add this to 2.5–3% inflation and we get a neutral short-term interest rate of 4–4.5%.",[20,42,43],{},"But this is not the whole story.",[20,45,46],{},"10-year bonds are more volatile than short-term bonds, so investors normally demand additional compensation for holding them. This is called the term premium.",[20,48,49],{},"A New York Fed model currently estimates the 10-year Treasury term premium at 0.8%.",[20,51,52],{},"That gives us a simple way of thinking about today's yield:",[20,54,55],{},"2.5–3% inflation + 1–1.5% real rate + 0.8% term premium = roughly 5%.",[20,57,58],{},"This suggests that today's 5% yield is not obviously excessive.",[20,60,61],{},"The biggest uncertainty is probably the fair level of the term premium.",[20,63,64],{},"It was unusually low for much of the past 15 years. Inflation was low and relatively stable, while central banks bought huge quantities of government bonds.",[20,66,67],{},"Today, inflation is less predictable, governments are issuing much more debt, and bonds may no longer provide the same portfolio protection they did in the low-inflation era.",[20,69,70],{},"This argues for a higher term premium.",[20,72,73],{},"If it increased from 0.8% today towards 2%, the 10-year Treasury yield could approach 6%.",[20,75,76],{},"That would, in my view, represent a more attractive level than today's 5%.",[20,78,79],{},"5% looks fair and somewhat interesting, but not yet a screaming buy.",{"title":81,"searchDepth":82,"depth":82,"links":83},"",3,[],"2026-09-14","A closer look at the inflation, real-rate and term-premium components behind the 5% US 10-year Treasury yield.",false,"md",{},true,"\u002Fblog\u002F2026-09-14-5-is-fair-but-not-yet-a-screaming-buy",{"title":14,"description":85},"blog\u002F2026-09-14-5-is-fair-but-not-yet-a-screaming-buy",[],"7nYcZKfPFdhcu4mwFbK1e7GbbaGiLLBQPn09mRIakCI",{"id":96,"title":97,"about":98,"body":99,"contact":98,"description":118,"extension":87,"hero":98,"hidden":86,"insights":98,"layout":98,"media":98,"meta":119,"navigation":89,"newsletterPrimary":98,"newsletterSecondary":98,"noindex":86,"ogImage":98,"path":120,"pressLounge":98,"seo":121,"seoTitle":98,"stem":122,"team":98,"weeklyNews":98,"__hash__":123},"pages\u002Fdisclosures.md","Disclosures",null,{"type":17,"value":100,"toc":116},[101,104,107,110,113],[20,102,103],{},"Triangula Capital is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer investment advisory, fund management or wealth management services.",[20,105,106],{},"The content on the website is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute (i) an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any security or other financial instrument, (ii) investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, or (iii) a personal recommendation as defined under MiFID II.",[20,108,109],{},"Information on the website is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is supplied on an “as-is” basis without warranty as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and forward-looking statements reflect the author’s judgement as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.",[20,111,112],{},"Triangula Capital and affiliates may hold positions in the securities mentioned on the website and may trade them without further disclosure. No liability is accepted for any direct, indirect, or consequential loss arising from the use of this material. Readers should conduct their own independent research and consult qualified advisers before making any investment decision.",[20,114,115],{},"Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, including the risk of total loss.",{"title":81,"searchDepth":82,"depth":82,"links":117},[],"Important disclosures for Triangula Capital.",{},"\u002Fdisclosures",{"title":97,"description":118},"disclosures","5OkJaYOgkdgDOt5K7BDK_eQFl5Pn-Gs_GaeYDPjWx34",1789406316482]