[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":110},["ShallowReactive",2],{"shared-newsletter-band":3,"post-\u002Fblog\u002F2026-09-07-why-the-ai-boom-could-keep-interest-rates-high":12,"disclosures-modal":81},{"newsletterSecondary":4},{"heading":5,"body":6,"nameLabel":7,"emailLabel":8,"consent":9,"submitLabel":10,"backdrop":11},"Follow Pietari's investment thinking","Receive Pietari’s latest market commentary and investment insights by email.","Name","Email","I agree to receive the Triangula Capital newsletter by email. I can unsubscribe at any time.","SUBSCRIBE","\u002Fimages\u002Fnewsletter-backdrop.webp",{"id":13,"title":14,"author":15,"body":16,"date":71,"description":15,"draft":72,"extension":73,"hero":15,"hidden":72,"image":15,"meta":74,"navigation":75,"noindex":72,"ogImage":15,"path":76,"seo":77,"seoTitle":15,"stem":78,"tags":79,"__hash__":80},"blog\u002Fblog\u002F2026-09-07-why-the-ai-boom-could-keep-interest-rates-high.md","Why the AI Boom Could Keep Interest Rates High","",{"type":17,"value":18,"toc":68},"minimark",[19,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65],[20,21,22],"p",{},"ChatGPT was launched in 2022. It could answer simple questions, an improvement over Google, which could only find information.",[20,24,25],{},"The first reasoning AI, o1-preview, followed in 2024. AIs could now answer not only everyday questions, but also more complicated technical questions requiring deep thought.",[20,27,28],{},"Coding agents were the great innovation of 2025. Instead of writing code yourself, you could tell an AI what you wanted and let it build the software.",[20,30,31],{},"The fourth stage of the AI revolution, computer-use agents, are the breakthrough of 2026. AIs can now use applications and websites on your behalf: shopping through a browser, answering emails, organising files, or creating and editing spreadsheets.",[20,33,34],{},"My own AI usage has exploded this year, and I expect AI to diffuse rapidly into office work over the next couple of years.",[20,36,37],{},"This means much more demand for AI compute, chips, data centres and electricity.",[20,39,40],{},"All of this needs to be paid for. And this comes at a time when governments are already borrowing heavily.",[20,42,43],{},"My view has consequently become more cautious on long-term interest rates. I now expect the German 10-year yield to remain above 3%, while the US 10-year yield could potentially reach 6% next year.",[20,45,46],{},"This has led to some changes in the portfolio.",[20,48,49],{},"I have reduced exposure to property and telecommunications. The valuations of these stocks are particularly sensitive to long-term interest rates.",[20,51,52],{},"At the same time, exposure to Energy has been increased. Oil prices have risen sharply this year and oil companies are posting record profits.",[20,54,55],{},"I see a meaningful risk, however, that increasing supply eventually pushes oil prices lower in 2027. The Energy view has therefore been expressed through oil services companies. They benefit from higher oil and gas investment, but have less direct exposure to the oil price than producers.",[20,57,58],{},"Although my view is that interest rates will increase next year, high government deficits and rising bond yields are now discussed almost everywhere. That makes me cautious. What you read in the media is often a contrarian signal: by the time a theme is widely covered by mainstream journalists, professional investors have typically already positioned for it and may be looking to exit.",[20,60,61],{},"I therefore haven't sold all of the portfolio's property exposure. Interest rates will probably remain structurally higher, but I would not be surprised to see bond yields fall temporarily during the final quarter of this year.",[20,63,64],{},"One of the lessons from this year is that you don't need to own AI companies to be exposed to AI. Many companies — software and professional services firms among them — will be affected by AI directly. Even companies owning physical assets can be substantially exposed through AI's effect on interest rates.",[20,66,67],{},"The portfolio has to be resilient to any AI scenario, and the recent changes are intended to reflect that.",{"title":15,"searchDepth":69,"depth":69,"links":70},3,[],"2026-09-07",false,"md",{},true,"\u002Fblog\u002F2026-09-07-why-the-ai-boom-could-keep-interest-rates-high",{"title":14,"description":15},"blog\u002F2026-09-07-why-the-ai-boom-could-keep-interest-rates-high",[],"DMovHyMlJVx1df7uKb6jcEfpWcw_QxQE1iXUoUvi1SM",{"id":82,"title":83,"about":84,"body":85,"contact":84,"description":104,"extension":73,"hero":84,"hidden":72,"insights":84,"layout":84,"media":84,"meta":105,"navigation":75,"newsletterPrimary":84,"newsletterSecondary":84,"noindex":72,"ogImage":84,"path":106,"pressLounge":84,"seo":107,"seoTitle":84,"stem":108,"team":84,"weeklyNews":84,"__hash__":109},"pages\u002Fdisclosures.md","Disclosures",null,{"type":17,"value":86,"toc":102},[87,90,93,96,99],[20,88,89],{},"Triangula Capital is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer investment advisory, fund management or wealth management services.",[20,91,92],{},"The content on the website is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute (i) an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any security or other financial instrument, (ii) investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, or (iii) a personal recommendation as defined under MiFID II.",[20,94,95],{},"Information on the website is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is supplied on an “as-is” basis without warranty as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and forward-looking statements reflect the author’s judgement as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.",[20,97,98],{},"Triangula Capital and affiliates may hold positions in the securities mentioned on the website and may trade them without further disclosure. No liability is accepted for any direct, indirect, or consequential loss arising from the use of this material. Readers should conduct their own independent research and consult qualified advisers before making any investment decision.",[20,100,101],{},"Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, including the risk of total loss.",{"title":15,"searchDepth":69,"depth":69,"links":103},[],"Important disclosures for Triangula Capital.",{},"\u002Fdisclosures",{"title":83,"description":104},"disclosures","5OkJaYOgkdgDOt5K7BDK_eQFl5Pn-Gs_GaeYDPjWx34",1788805683897]