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Weekly Update 12 August 2024

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This content is provided for information purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

After falling heavily a week ago, stocks rebounded and ended last week unchanged. This was a case of unnecessary panic which subsided as cooler heads prevailed.

Two weeks ago, I wrote that the 2020s would offer many opportunities to make money from major macro events and trends. One trend I expect is US dollar depreciation.

Several factors have created demand for the dollar over the past decade:

1. The shale revolution, by making the US energy independent, improved the US’ terms of trade and its resilience against energy shocks. The US stands out as the only country (excluding commodity exporters) whose terms of trade improved from 2010 to 2022.

usafacts.org/articles/is-the-us-energy-independent/

think.ing.com/articles/breaking-down-g10-valuation-the-key-is-in-the-terms-of-trade/

2. Especially in recent years, the US ran a big budget deficit. This boosted the economy and inflation, and required the US Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at higher levels compared to the euro area or Japan.

3. The US’ leading position in technology was maintained. This led to demand for US stocks and, indirectly, the dollar.

The result is that the US dollar has strengthened to a level well above its historical average. Different models suggest the dollar may now be 10-20% overvalued.
www.rbcgam.com/en/ca/article/global-currency-outlook-spring-2024/detail
www.vanguard.co.uk/professional/insights-education/insights/the-us-dollar-is-unlikely-to-continue-defying-gravity
think.ing.com/articles/g10-fx-outlook-2024-the-dollars-long-goodbye/
www.gwkinvest.com/insight/is-the-us-dollar-overvalued prosperousamerica.org/currency-misalignment-monitor-july-2024/

There are, however, reasons to think the dollar’s fortunes may be about to reverse.
https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1817208972186714291

The main issue for the dollar is that the US budget deficit is unsustainable. Debt interest payments will become a problem for the US sooner or later, given the current level of interest rates.

When that happens, the US will have to rein in its budget deficit, lower interest rates, or both. These actions will tend to lower the value of the dollar. When the US does rein in its budget deficit, it will be important for investors not just in currency markets. The large US deficit has corresponded with a period when US stocks kept outperforming the rest of the world, due to strong US economic growth. If the deficit is reined in, the US economy should weaken, and this should lead to outperformance of non-US stocks.
www.crescat.net/the-bear-case-for-the-dollar/

“[T]his coming decade is likely to witness one of the most extreme rebalances of capital away from the US and towards the rest of the world,” contends macro strategist Otavia Costa on X.
https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1821382713003409903

I’m not sure if I would be quite that dramatic, but I do agree that there is a strong case to be made for non-US stock outperformance over the coming years. The portfolio is therefore composed mostly of non-US stocks, unlike the MSCI World index, which is 70% concentrated in the US.

𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲
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Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

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© Pietari Laurila 2024 | All rights reserved.

Disclosures

eToro is a multi-asset platform which offers both investing in stocks and cryptoassets, as well as trading CFD assets.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 51% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

eToro (Europe) Ltd., a Financial Services Company authorised and regulated by the Cyprus Securities Exchange Commission (CySEC) under the license # 109/10.

eToro (UK) Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) under the license FRN 583263.

Your capital is at risk. Other fees may apply. For more information, visit etoro.com/trading/fees.

Pietari Laurila is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer investment advisory, fund management or wealth management services.

Triangula Capital is a brand name, not an incorporated entity.

This page is provided for information purposes only. It is not a recommendation to copy the Triangula Capital strategy or to buy, sell or hold any security.

2009-2020 performance figures are from Pietari’s personal Interactive Brokers account. They are time-weighted returns calculated in accordance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS).

From 2021, performance is calculated by eToro.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Track Record

It is often said that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

That is true. But there is also some evidence indicating that portfolios that performed better in the past, do perform better in the future.

“[…] top-decile prior-alpha funds produce annual future alphas of about 150 bps, net of fees” Source

Risk warning: That is only one study. In general, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aligned Incentives

Pietari invests the majority of his net worth in the strategy. This ensures that his interests are aligned with investors who copy the strategy.

“Funds with high-incentive contracts deliver higher risk-adjusted return, and the superior performance remains persistent. The top incentive quintile of funds outperforms the bottom quintile by 2.70% per year” Source

Risk warning: Pietari holds accounts with multiple brokers and may therefore have a conflict of interest when deciding which accounts he should trade in first.

Unconstrained Investments

The strategy has fewer constraints on its investments than traditional mutual funds.

The strategy portfolio can be invested in stocks, bonds or cash and these allocations can vary over time.

Compared to traditional mutual funds, the strategy also:

  • holds fewer securities
  • trades more
  • avoids following the index

Each of these points has been shown to be an important predictor of portfolio performance.

“We […] find that portfolio concentration is directly related to risk-adjusted returns for institutional investors worldwide” Source

“A one-standard-deviation increase in turnover is associated with a 0.65% per year increase in performance for the typical fund” Source

“We find that truly active funds significantly outperform closet indexers. Further, we find that the truly active funds are able to outperform their benchmarks on average by 1.04% per year” Source

Risk warning: Concentrated portfolios with few positions can suffer large losses if bad news arrives about any of the companies in the portfolio.

Cheap Stocks in Cheap Sectors

The strategy invests in geographies and sectors where values have collapsed due to macroeconomic problems.

Within these geographies and sectors, the strategy overweights stocks that trade at low valuations on measures such as price-to-earnings or price-to-net asset value.

Every stock in the strategy portfolio must also be a good company, with no obvious red flags or long-term threats to its business model.

The aim of the strategy is to maximize returns, even if this means taking more risks than usual.

Risk warning: The strategy portfolio tends to be concentrated in risky stocks, which means that its losses in any market downturn will likely exceed those of the market index.