The first quarter is ending on a weak note for stocks. The MSCI World Index has declined a few percent this year, weighed down by the impact of Donald Trump’s policies, which have slowed both the US and global economies.

Despite this, the portfolio has had a positive start to the year, outperforming the MSCI World Index by approximately 9 percentage points year-to-date. This outperformance is largely due to the portfolio’s focus on European stocks, which have substantially outpaced US stocks this year.

Looking ahead, President Trump is set to announce new tariffs on 2 April, and markets have declined in anticipation.

Optimists believe 2 April could mark a turning point, reducing uncertainty and paving the way for a stock market rally. From this perspective, Trump will be constrained by a slowing economy and declining markets, preventing him from pushing tariffs too far.

Pessimists, by contrast, argue that US stocks remain overvalued and that a recession is overdue. In such a scenario, stocks could decline by 20% or more.

As markets react to Trump’s policies, volatility is inevitable. Given his history of unpredictability, we can expect rapid moves and reversals: one day, fears of a tariff-driven recession will send stocks lower; the next, a policy shift could spark a rebound.

Rather than attempt to trade around the tariff announcement, I have positioned the portfolio in stocks that should survive the tariffs. Last week Chemicals exposure was reduced and non-US banks added. In almost any tariff scenario, I believe Europe is poised to outperform the US over the next couple of years, making European stocks a safer long-term investment.

𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲
@triangulacapital +8.2%
SWDA.L -1.6%

𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀
British Land and Arkema were sold, NatWest and HSBC bought.