Investing in undervalued securities worldwide

Weekly Update 6 June 2022

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Stocks fell slightly last week, interrupting the bear market rally that had started in the second half of May.

We hold a risk-on portfolio at the moment because:

1. The market has already incorporated an economic slowdown into prices.

2. The $SPX500 is trading clearly below its 50-day moving average.

3. Investor sentiment is pessimistic and positioning low.

4. The media narrative appears negative, with more focus on the possible downside than upside.

5. Investor flows into equities have reversed, with large inflows seen last week.

6. China is re-opening its economy.

This positive tactical outlook does not change our view that sooner or later, the Fed will have to raise interest rates aggressively to bring inflation back under control, which we expect will lead to further losses for stocks in late 2022 or 2023.

But this may not be a straightforward or quick process. As Ruchir Sharma notes in the FT: “Markets do not move in straight lines, and it takes time for entrenched investor psychology to break. Though many institutional investors have cut stock holdings, retail investors have barely flinched so far.”

Many still remember the good days of 2020 and 2021 and hold onto their stocks. It may take more economic pain and market losses for investors to give up on stocks, which would then create the right conditions for the next bull market to start, perhaps sometime in 2023.

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@triangulacapital +3.1%
$SWDA.L -13.2%

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$BAYN.DE (Bayer AG) and $EQR (Equity Residential) were replaced by $ADS.DE (Adidas AG) and $KER.PA (Kering SA), in part because the latter two benefit from China’s re-opening.

Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.

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eToro is a multi-asset platform which offers both investing in stocks and cryptoassets, as well as trading CFD assets.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 51% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

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eToro (UK) Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) under the license FRN 583263.

Your capital is at risk. Other fees may apply. For more information, visit

Pietari Laurila is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer investment advisory, fund management or wealth management services.

Triangula Capital is a brand name, not an incorporated entity.

This page is provided for information purposes only. It is not a recommendation to copy the Triangula Capital strategy or to invest in any fund or security.

2009-2020 performance figures are from Pietari’s personal Interactive Brokers account. They are time-weighted returns calculated in accordance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS).

From 2021, performance is calculated by eToro.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Track Record

It is often said that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

That is true. But there is also some evidence indicating that portfolios that performed better in the past, do perform better in the future.

“[…] top-decile prior-alpha funds produce annual future alphas of about 150 bps, net of fees” Source

Risk warning: That is only one study. In general, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aligned Incentives

Pietari invests the majority of his net worth in the strategy. This ensures that his interests are aligned with investors who copy the strategy.

“Funds with high-incentive contracts deliver higher risk-adjusted return, and the superior performance remains persistent. The top incentive quintile of funds outperforms the bottom quintile by 2.70% per year” Source

Risk warning: Pietari holds accounts with multiple brokers and may therefore have a conflict of interest when deciding which accounts he should trade in first.

Unconstrained Investments

The strategy has fewer constraints on its investments than traditional mutual funds.

The strategy portfolio can be invested in stocks, bonds or cash and these allocations can vary over time.

Compared to traditional mutual funds, the strategy also:

  • holds fewer securities
  • trades more
  • avoids following the index

Each of these points has been shown to be an important predictor of portfolio performance.

“We […] find that portfolio concentration is directly related to risk-adjusted returns for institutional investors worldwide” Source

“A one-standard-deviation increase in turnover is associated with a 0.65% per year increase in performance for the typical fund” Source

“We find that truly active funds significantly outperform closet indexers. Further, we find that the truly active funds are able to outperform their benchmarks on average by 1.04% per year” Source

Risk warning: Concentrated portfolios with few positions can suffer large losses if bad news arrives about any of the companies in the portfolio.

Cheap Stocks in Cheap Sectors

The strategy invests in geographies and sectors where values have collapsed due to macroeconomic problems.

Within these geographies and sectors, the strategy overweights stocks that trade at low valuations on measures such as price-to-earnings or price-to-net asset value.

Every stock in the strategy portfolio must also be a good company, with no obvious red flags or long-term threats to its business model.

The aim of the strategy is to maximize returns, even if this means taking more risks than usual.

Risk warning: The strategy portfolio tends to be concentrated in risky stocks, which means that its losses in any market downturn will likely exceed those of the market index.