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Weekly Update 23 May 2022

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Stocks fell for a seventh week in a row, briefly entering a bear market on Friday.
www.ft.com/content/5ab84b8f-61a3-4c04-a9e6-bae91e98e49d

We hold a positive near-term outlook on the market despite this relentless selling because:

1. Investor sentiment is at rock-bottom levels. Bank of America’s closely-watched Bull & Bear sentiment indicator gave an “unambiguous” buy signal last week. The indicator has a good historical track record of timing market bottoms.
www.reuters.com/markets/asia/global-markets-flows-urgent-2022-05-20/

2. According to Goldman Sachs, retail traders have sold 50% of what they purchased in 2020-2021. Retail traders are generally thought to be a contrarian indicator, as they tend to be buy after rallies and sell after declines.
stuckinthemiddle.substack.com/p/still-ripe

3. We do not expect a recession this year. This is because the quantitative models we follow do not flash warning signals as of yet.
www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq#/interactive
www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/05/19/cb-lei-fall-in-april

In our view, market sentiment has now turned too negative. News stories mentioning the word “recession” have become more frequent in the media, which is a contrarian indicator. At the same time, inflation may be about to peak, which could provide temporary relief for stocks and bonds.
stuckinthemiddle.substack.com/p/still-ripe

As a result of our positive near-term outlook, the portfolio currently has a risk-on bias. We hold banks ($LLOY.L (Lloyd’s Banking Group PLC), $SAN.MC (Banco Santander SA), $BAC (Bank of America Corp), $KB (KB Financial Group Inc)), capital market players ($EQH (Equitable Holdings Inc.), $IBKR (Interactive Brokers Group), $AMUN.PA (Amundi SA)), Energy companies ($BP.L (BP), $SHEL (Shell PLS (ADR))), and oversold Real Estate ($VNA.DE (Vonovia SE), $BDEV.L (Barratt Developments), $STOR (Store Capital Corp.), $EQR (Equity Residential)). The portfolio is not quite 100% risk-on, though, as there are also a few less cyclical names ($DTE.DE (Deutsche Telekom AG), $SAN.PA (Sanofi), $BAYN.DE (Bayer AG)) in it.

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@triangulacapital -1.8%
$SWDA.L -17.1%

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$CAPC.L (Capital & Counties Properties PLC) was replaced by $VNA.DE .

Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.

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© Pietari Laurila 2024 | All rights reserved.

Disclosures

eToro is a multi-asset platform which offers both investing in stocks and cryptoassets, as well as trading CFD assets.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 51% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

eToro (Europe) Ltd., a Financial Services Company authorised and regulated by the Cyprus Securities Exchange Commission (CySEC) under the license # 109/10.

eToro (UK) Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) under the license FRN 583263.

Your capital is at risk. Other fees may apply. For more information, visit etoro.com/trading/fees.

Pietari Laurila is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer investment advisory, fund management or wealth management services.

Triangula Capital is a brand name, not an incorporated entity.

This page is provided for information purposes only. It is not a recommendation to copy the Triangula Capital strategy or to invest in any fund or security.

2009-2020 performance figures are from Pietari’s personal Interactive Brokers account. They are time-weighted returns calculated in accordance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS).

From 2021, performance is calculated by eToro.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Track Record

It is often said that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

That is true. But there is also some evidence indicating that portfolios that performed better in the past, do perform better in the future.

“[…] top-decile prior-alpha funds produce annual future alphas of about 150 bps, net of fees” Source

Risk warning: That is only one study. In general, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aligned Incentives

Pietari invests the majority of his net worth in the strategy. This ensures that his interests are aligned with investors who copy the strategy.

“Funds with high-incentive contracts deliver higher risk-adjusted return, and the superior performance remains persistent. The top incentive quintile of funds outperforms the bottom quintile by 2.70% per year” Source

Risk warning: Pietari holds accounts with multiple brokers and may therefore have a conflict of interest when deciding which accounts he should trade in first.

Unconstrained Investments

The strategy has fewer constraints on its investments than traditional mutual funds.

The strategy portfolio can be invested in stocks, bonds or cash and these allocations can vary over time.

Compared to traditional mutual funds, the strategy also:

  • holds fewer securities
  • trades more
  • avoids following the index

Each of these points has been shown to be an important predictor of portfolio performance.

“We […] find that portfolio concentration is directly related to risk-adjusted returns for institutional investors worldwide” Source

“A one-standard-deviation increase in turnover is associated with a 0.65% per year increase in performance for the typical fund” Source

“We find that truly active funds significantly outperform closet indexers. Further, we find that the truly active funds are able to outperform their benchmarks on average by 1.04% per year” Source

Risk warning: Concentrated portfolios with few positions can suffer large losses if bad news arrives about any of the companies in the portfolio.

Cheap Stocks in Cheap Sectors

The strategy invests in geographies and sectors where values have collapsed due to macroeconomic problems.

Within these geographies and sectors, the strategy overweights stocks that trade at low valuations on measures such as price-to-earnings or price-to-net asset value.

Every stock in the strategy portfolio must also be a good company, with no obvious red flags or long-term threats to its business model.

The aim of the strategy is to maximize returns, even if this means taking more risks than usual.

Risk warning: The strategy portfolio tends to be concentrated in risky stocks, which means that its losses in any market downturn will likely exceed those of the market index.