Investing in undervalued securities worldwide

Weekly Update 11 April 2022

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Stocks fell last week as the Federal Reserveโ€™s tightening plans weighed on company valuations.
www.ft.com/content/64fa2797-9c85-44cf-95f4-f573bc480790

We are growing increasingly concerned about the disconnect between stock valuations and surging interest rates.

While bond yields have increased at a rapid pace, with the US 10-year interest rate hitting 2.8% today, stocks have stayed resilient.

This is unusual. Fed hikes of 150 basis points in 1987, 300 basis points in 1994 and 200 basis points in 2018 all caused serious trouble for the markets.

We are also concerned about the economy. Inflation is surging while the GDP growth rate is slowing due to the war in Ukraine, COVID restrictions in Asia and a negative inventory cycle elsewhere.

As a result, the portfolio has been repositioned into stocks that have historically outperformed in stagflationary (low growth + high inflation) environments. These are stocks from the Real Estate ($XLRE), Healthcare ($XLV), and Energy ($XLE) sectors.

The repositioned portfolio should be resilient against surging inflation, for example if oil and food prices increase further.

If there is a sell-off in the next few months as a result of the higher interest rates, we may move the portfolio into riskier, cyclical stocks again.

๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฎ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐—ฌ๐—ง๐——
@triangulacapital +1.1%
$SWDA.L -6.4%

๐—ฃ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฒ๐˜€
$SIE.DE (Siemens Aktiengesellschaft), $BDEV.L (Barratt Developments), $ADEN.ZU (Adecco Group AG), $HOT.DE (HOCHTIEF AG) $VIE.PA (Veolia Environnement S.A.), $ICAD.PA (Icade SA), $SAN.PA (Sanofi) and $ML.PA (Compagnie Generale DES Etablissements Michelin SCA) were sold, to 1) reduce French exposure as a result of the risk of Marine Le Pen being elected; 2) to make room for stagflation beneficiaries in the Real Estate and Energy sectors.

They were replaced by $BP.L (BP), $STOR (Store Capital Corp.), $CAPC.L (Capital & Counties Properties PLC), $GRI.L (Grainger PLC), $SHEL (Shell PLS (ADR)), $LEG.DE (LEG Immobilien AG) and $HR (Healthcare Realty Trust Inc) .

๐—”๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ
โ€œThese are the stocks Pietari Laurila invests in nowโ€
www.kauppalehti.fi/uutiset/suomalainen-diplomi-insinoori-nousi-kansainvalisen-sijoitusalustan-suosituimpien-joukkoon-naihin-osakkeisiin-pietari-laurila-luottaa-nyt/a880bf10-e4e5-471f-af25-4cdd291830f6

– This article in Finnish newspaper ๐พ๐‘Ž๐‘ข๐‘๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘™๐‘’โ„Ž๐‘ก๐‘– (paywall) summarises some of our recent investment views.
– โ€œIn the current environment, it is important to protect your capital from inflation,โ€ notes the article. Value stocks, real estate and commodities are mentioned as assets that have historically provided high levels of inflation protection.

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Disclosures

eToro is a multi-asset platform which offers both investing in stocks and cryptoassets, as well as trading CFD assets.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.ย 67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

eToro (Europe) Ltd., a Financial Services Company authorised and regulated by the Cyprus Securities Exchange Commission (CySEC) under the license # 109/10.

eToro (UK) Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) under the license FRN 583263.

Your capital is at risk. Other fees may apply. For more information, visitย etoro.com/trading/fees.

Pietari Laurila is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer investment advisory, fund management or wealth management services.

Triangula Capital is a brand name, not an incorporated entity.

This page is provided for information purposes only. It is not a recommendation to copy the Triangula Capital strategy or to invest in any fund or security.

2009-2020 performance figures are from Pietari’s personal Interactive Brokers account. They are time-weighted returns calculated in accordance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS).

From 2021, performance is calculated by eToro.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Track Record

It is often said that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

That is true. But there is also some evidence indicating that portfolios that performed better in the past, do perform better in the future.

“[…] top-decile prior-alpha funds produce annual future alphas of about 150 bps, net of fees”ย Source

Risk warning: That is only one study. In general, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aligned Incentives

Pietari invests the majority of his net worth in the strategy. This ensures that his interests are aligned with investors who copy the strategy.

“Funds with high-incentive contracts deliver higher risk-adjusted return, and the superior performance remains persistent. The top incentive quintile of funds outperforms the bottom quintile by 2.70% per year” Source

Risk warning: Pietari holds accounts with multiple brokers and may therefore have a conflict of interest when deciding which accounts he should trade in first.

Unconstrained Investments

The strategy has fewer constraints on its investments than traditional mutual funds.

The strategy portfolio can be invested in stocks, bonds or cash and these allocations can vary over time.

Compared to traditional mutual funds, the strategy also:

  • holds fewer securities
  • trades more
  • avoids following the index

Each of these points has been shown to be an important predictor of portfolio performance.

“We […] find that portfolio concentration is directly related to risk-adjusted returns for institutional investors worldwide” Source

“A one-standard-deviation increase in turnover is associated with a 0.65% per year increase in performance for the typical fund” Source

“We find that truly active funds significantly outperform closet indexers. Further, we find that the truly active funds are able to outperform their benchmarks on average by 1.04% per year” Source

Risk warning: Concentrated portfolios with few positions can suffer large losses if bad news arrives about any of the companies in the portfolio.

Higher Risks for Higher Returns

The aim of the strategy is to maximize returns, even if this means taking more risks than usual.

The strategy invests in countries and sectors where values have collapsed due to macroeconomic problems.

Within these geographies and sectors, the strategy overweights stocks that trade at low valuations on measures such as price-to-earnings or price-to-net asset value.

Every stock in the strategy portfolio must also be a good company, with no obvious red flags or long-term threats to its business model.

Risk warning: The strategy portfolio tends to be concentrated in risky stocks, which means that its losses in any market downturn will likely exceed those of the market index.