Q1 2022 was the worst quarter for stocks in two years. The MSCI World index ($SWDA.L) lost 5% due to the war in Ukraine and worries about the consequences of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
www.ft.com/content/4fb7bd44-c061-4617-8d53-61be772324df
Our strategy outperformed the index by more than 7 percentage points. The strategy also slightly beat the Value stock index $VTV .
The strategy is staying invested in stocks because although the yield curve briefly inverted last week, sending an early recession warning signal, stocks have gained 8% in the 12 months after inversion, on average.
www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-embrace-late-cycle-playbook
โThe current spreads indicate that the probability of a recession is still below 50%,โ notes Philip Marey of Rabobank.
www.zerohedge.com/markets/inversions-and-recessions
However, we are not rushing into the riskiest areas of the market and maintain a balanced exposure across sectors.
๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฎ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ง๐
@triangulacapital +2.6%
$SWDA.L -5.0%
๐ฃ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ณ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐ผ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐
$ROG.ZU (Roche Holding Ltd) and $AZN.L (AstraZeneca) were replaced by $VIE.PA (Veolia Environnement S.A.) and $BDEV.L (Barratt Developments), slightly increasing the risk level of the portfolio.
๐๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ
โState of Playโ
www.kkr.com/global-perspectives/publications/state-of-play
– KKR forecasts $SPX500 will end the year at 4750, and will further increase to 4840 in 2023.
– They note that the best-performing market segments during the stagflationary 1970s were Value stocks ($VTV), Small Caps ($VB), REITs ($REET), and Commodities ($DJP).